Washington vs Carolina

December 11, 2009 by DoctorX79

Washington, entering tonight’s game at the Verizon Center as the top ranked club in the NHL, have cruised through the first 30 games of the season without much difficulty despite enduring an endless run to the infirmary. In keeping with that trend, the Caps will welcome back Mike Knuble to the lineup tonight after a month long absence due to a broken finger. Knuble’s presence will further insulate what is already the most potent offense in the NHL and will give the Caps that big body presence in front of the opposition’s net since Knuble went down with his injury. Also returning to the lineup will be Mathieu Perreault, Milan Jurcina and Matt Bradley.

The Hurricanes have also welcomed back a big part of their franchise as Cam Ward returned to the Carolina net against the Devils on Wednesday. Ward, who has basically missed the last five weeks with a laceration to his leg will finally provide the Canes with a stable presence on the back-end and, very likely, a renewed sense of confidence.

That said, the Canes are currently the worst team in the NHL, boasting a mere 19 points and are 8 points behind the 29th ranked team, the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Washington will bring an astounding, and league-leading, 111 goals in 31 games to the ice tonight, while the Hurricanes arrive in DC with the second-worst goals for total with only 72 goals scored in 30 games. The Hurricanes have also allowed the second most goals against so far this year, having allowed 109 goals against. Cam Ward’s return should likely help stem the amount of goals the Carolina has let in, but with so many injuries(Cole, Samsanov, Corvo, Larose and Wallin), the ‘Canes will be hard-pressed against a fully loaded Capitals offense tonight.

Speaking of the fully-loaded offense, Washington now has 8 top six forwards in the lineup and Bruce Boudreau will be in tough to give everyone the ice-time they all want, but with so many dangerous weapons in the lineup, the Caps should have no problem throwing wave after wave of offense at the ‘Canes.

Brian Pothier is out of the lineup tonight with a rib injury so Milan Jurcina will skate in his place.

Mathieu Perreault will also return.
Semyon Varlamov is now on the IR and will not return until, most likely, the end of the Caps upcoming road trip. In the meantime, Jose Theodore will start tonight, so expect Michal Neuvirth to get another shot in nets tomorrow night when the Caps head off to Toronto to face the Leafs.

With a perfect record of 7-0-0 against the Southeast Division, Washington will want to keep up their perfect pace and make up for their weak performance against the Sabres. Alex Ovechkin and Alex Semin have been on and off since their respective returns from injury, but with more diversions in the lineup, expect these two to start piling up the points.

Finally, one thing to keep an eye on tonight will be how Hurricanes defenseman Tim Gleason and Alex Ovechkin play against one another. The last time these two teams met, Ovechkin ended up with a 2 game suspension for kneeing Gleason and a media circus of focus then ensued as OV was bombarded with questions of whether he would change his style of play or not. Obviously Ovechkin isn’t switching up his style for anyone, so expect OV to leave everything on the ice tonight against Gleason and the Hurricanes. I wouldn’t count on there being any fireworks, but, for what it’s worth, it’s definitely something to keep an eye on.

Pick: Washington -227

Atlanta vs Vancouver

December 10, 2009 by DoctorX79

The past three seasons, since Roberto Luongo joined the team, have seen the Canucks roar to life in November, be passive in December and for two out of the previous seasons cruise to April with solid and play and no pooping the bed down the stretch. What's different this year?Undecided

Right now I have to say a general attitude of indifference. How can they roll into Jersey and light up Brodeur for 3 in the first, shut out Philly and then let in 9 goals the next two games? More importantly what is going on within the team that has left fans looking at the club as if they have Flames disease? Calgary has obviously cured their bout with inconsistent play and performance while Vancouver seems to have picked up the 'bug' and let it become comfortable with wide open welcoming arms.

A record of 6-4 in the last 10 is not terrible but for the Canucks it is right now as they need to start stringing wins together to move out this 10-12th place spot. More importantly they need to be putting the hammer down and coming to play every night.

The Thrashers were beat last night the ridiculously stingy Flames and let's hope the Canucks have been at the shooting range because they need to start firing instead of watching. In my opinion this is where things are going awry- there is too much watching and waiting and hoping some one else solves the problem. This malaise of indifference is solved by a concentrated team approach to improving overall effort. The Sedins are not going to do it alone, nor is Luongo, or the 3rd line or the the defense. All of these 'team parts' need to show up every night and due their job. I believe there are too many guys taking the night off.

My belief may not be entirely accurate in respect to the Nashville game but I think it is close when looking at a 10 game, 20 game or 30 game stretch. Have the Canucks placed themselves too far out? No they are not out of anything but they are making it harder for themselves when the schedule gets harder. The 8 game home stand ending on Boxing Day against the Oilers will be a huge test and I believe the team needs to go at least 6-2 through that stretch to have any chance at moving up in the standings.

Tonight is a good chance to take a step towards that record. The Southern Birds played last night, traveled and are fading a bit from their hot start. It's a team that might be as desperate as the Canucks are to right the ship, just as the Predators were. We know how that turned out. It's an easy thing to write and I know I write it often and it's the oldest cliche in hockey- but the Canucks have to carry the play and too often they aren't, tonight is no different from any other game. Skating and charging from the opening face off is important otherwise we fans might as well assume the team is bird watching. If that is the case the team needs to be put on notice because I'm not sure how much longer Mike Gillis can be patient.

Pick: Vancouver -200

 

Devils vs Sabres

December 7, 2009 by DoctorX79

The New Jersey Devils are rolling again with their second straight victory in two nights, this time beating the Red Wings in the shoot-out after blowing a two goal lead.

The Devils, who are second in the Atlantic Division and third place overall in the Eastern Conference have been getting healthy with Johnny Oduya and Jay Pandolfo back in the lineup against the Wings while Paul Martin, David Clarkson and Danius Zubrus still on the shelf. Despite the injury bug hitting the Devils hard, like many NHL teams this season, the Devils have successfully inserted youngsters into the lineup who have held their own and contributing nicely to Coach Jacques Lemaire’s system – Niclas Bergfors (third on the team in scoring), Mark Fraser, Matt Halischuk, Vladimir Zharkov, Matt Corrente to name a few have been steady plugs.
Therefore when the Devils get a healthy body back it is like adding without subtraction which makes the Devils a more steady and confident team and a much difficult opponent. Patrik Elias is a great example, with 3 goals and 7 assists in 13 games back has put up some points and given the Devils added depth and threat but most importantly made those around him better such as Brian Rolston who looks like a different player from the start of the season (8 points in the last 7 games).

The Devils play the Sabers on Versus so all eyes on these teams and it should be a hockey fan’s treat. The Sabers who are also second in their Division coming off of a loss to the New York Rangers will look to get back in the win column.
The team has adapted very well to returning Coach Jacques Lemaire’s system and will need to continue their ways with Zach Parise, in my opinion the next Captain of the New Jersey Devils, leading the way along with former college teammate Travis Zajac who is also taking another step in his NHL development and proving to be a key player for the Devils. Captain Jamie Langenbrunner’s presence with them is also a bonus.

In net, Martin Brodeur continues his old ways after a year to forget last year. He has been playing a steady game and still chasing that elusive all-time shut-out record of 103 career shut-outs currently held by great Terry Sawchuk. It is a matter of time till Brodeur ties the record with his next shut-out which he has been chasing since October 17th.

The Devils' average looking defense has been performing above expectations which is typical for the New Jersey Devils teams since the days of Scott Niedermayer and Scott Stevens. While key defenseman Paul Martin is still out, the step-up of Andy Greene (3 goals, 11 assists while averaging over 23 minutes per game) has given the Devils that puck moving player alongside Oduya. Greene is giving the Devils a bit of what they have lacked since Brian Rafalski left. Mike Mottau, Colin White and Bryce Salvador play their parts in a defensively responsible defensive corps.

Devils Keys to the Game – The Brodeur/Miller goalie duel:

1- Figuring Ryan Miller (1.83 GAA) out will be the Devils’ forwards homework. He has been spectacular.
2- Brodeur – continue his consistent play in net. Do we see him get more days off as the Olympics get closer? I think it may be Marty’s choice.
3- Continue the integration of injured players back into the lineup – Oduya and Pandolfo will just get better and in game shape with every game. Devils forwards balancing the scoring opportunities.

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Montreal Canadiens

November 24, 2009 by DoctorX79

Montreal vs Columbus

Today’s match up : Columbus Blue Jackets @ Montreal Canadiens

First up, the Montreal Canadiens. Nobody quite knew what to expect from this completely changed team. Probably one of the most changed team in the off-season.  Once again, like a lot of other teams in the NHL this year, the Habs have had their share of injuries, losing all-star defenseman Andrei Markov in the very first game of the year. Things have been going downhill from there, with the GM trying to patch things up with some very odd signings in Jay Leach and Marc-Andre Bergeron. Bergeron looked like a good option considering how little cap space the Canadiens still have, but his play is very unstable, he doesn’t  even look NHL ready, very poor judgment at times and limited defensive capabilities. This lack of defense explains why Carey Price, who is playing absolutely great, only has 6 wins in 16 games. He had to make 52 saves against the offensively challenged Predators, who have one of the worst Goal per Game average(2.27), and the Habs still managed to lose. With Gionta out with a broken foot, and Gomez out indefinitely, the second and third liners are going to have to step up, as Michael Cammaleri can’t do it alone. The good news, is that Plekanec has come to play this year after a disappointing season, the Canadiens’ top point producer is red hot right now and certainly will feed his wingers the puck like he’s been doing since the beginning of the season. With 8 points in his last 6 games (22 points in 23 games this year) and Andrei Kostitsyn’s recent awakening, tonight’s first line might surprise us with quite a production.

 

The Blue Jackets aren’t the flashiest team but always manage to do pretty well for themself. Currently a middle-of-the-pack team, they are coming off an offensive massacre against the Rangers yesterday losing 7-4 with Colombus’ top player, Rick Nash, finishing the night with no points and a minus-4 rating. One of their biggest flaw, this year, is that their number 1 goaltender, Steve Mason, doesn’t seem to be able to find his groove this year and having a career year in the previous season.  He let in 4 goals in 18 shots last night, has a 3.59 GAA and a .885 SV%. They are the kind of team you can rule out before a the game started, I actually expect a good production from Nash and Voracek.

 

Many factor will come in play for tonight’s prediction. The Canadiens traded one of their Quebecer player yesterday and traded him for Pouliot. They also recalled Andrei’s brother, Sergei from the Hamilton Bulldogs. All these changes hopefully changed the spirit in the locker room and gave them a reason to want it more than before tonight. Montreal also has home advantage and with the fan base there, it’s a big advantage. The Jackets are coming off an intense game versus the Rangers and are playing their #2 goaltender Mathieu Garon, for those reasons, I  will pick  the Montreal Canadiens tonight, but in a low score game, possibly even in shootout.

Chicago vs Vancouver on Sunday

November 22, 2009 by DoctorX79

Before giving any plausible prediction on tonight’s game, let’s explore both of these teams’ situations.

First off, the Chicago Blackhawks are coming off a 5 game winning streak making them one of the most feared teams not only in the western division but throughout the league.  They haven’t lost a single game since the return of their captain, Jonathan Toews.  Thursday’s Calgary massacre says a lot about this young and hungry team, I mean 7 goals scored against arguably the best defense in the NHL is nothing short of extraordinary.  With 21 points in 20 games, Patrick Kane is this team’s offensive force, 8 straight games with at least a point, and 3 multipoint nights, watching him play is as exciting as it gets. It’s hard to find weaknesses in a team that has been winning even without one of their biggest offensive asset in Marian Hossa. Even with Bolland out, I has barely made a dent in Chicago’s ability in scoring with guys like Patrick Sharp ready to take on the job as center on the second line. You might think that the Blackhawks’ weakness might be in front of the crease but who can seriously say anything about a .907 SV% and a 2.17 GAA. Those stats are comparable to some of the best goaltenders in the league like Brodeur or Nabokov.

 

Now let’s see what’s going on with , in my opinion, the underperforming Vancouver Canucks. With big offseason signings (Schneider, Raycroft, etc.) and re-signing (Sedin Twins, Luongo , etc), the Canucks looked like one the teams to beat in the West, their 10th place in the west certainly doesn’t do them justice. They have been plagued with injuries, and they have been paying for it. It’s hard to pin point  the real problem with this team, it’s pretty much a matter of inconsistency  one day  they’ll go out and score 7, another they’ll get scored on 7 times. However the Canucks aren’t the kind of team you can rule out before any given game. Even with D. Sedin out, they still have H.Sedin, Ryan Kesler and many more players that are capable of giving them the win, specially with a stud like Robert Luongo in nets, arguably the best goaltender in the league even tho his 2.64 GAA and .907 SV% aren’t what we’re used to seeing from him, he’s been known to be a slow starter and now that he has recovered from his injury, expect nothing but greats things from him.

 

On to the prediction, this is a game of western heavyweights and it can always go either way when it comes to such talent, the canucks have the home advantage which is always to consider but I don’t think it can favor them that much. Giving the fact that the Blackhawks are on a hot streak, and seem unstoppable I will give them the win for this game but in a very tight game.  Pinny currently offers the hacks at +115 .  If you are willing to lay a lot of juice the puck line might be interesting                     Chicago +1.5 -265.

Saturday Night hockey Detroit in Montreal

November 21, 2009 by DoctorX79

Let’s look at this game in depth for tonight.

Montreal had an incredible game last night and came out with an impressive win 3-2 in Washington keeping Ovechkin out of the score sheet even with a lot of injuries.

That’s probably Jacques Martin used a defensive approach putting Moan on the 1st line while Gionta is on the injury list.

 

Montreal goalie Carey Price had a very tough start early this season but raised in save % over the last games with a save % of .938 in his last 4 games. He should start again this Saturday vs. Detroit (but not confirmed yet)

 Montreal Defense allowed only 9 goals in their last 5 games.

As I said earlier with all theses injuries Montreal plays more defensive because of the lack of offensive talent with only 32 goals in 22 games playing 5 on 5 and the power play isn’t that good scoring  11 goals in 69 attempts for a total percentage of 16.9% 24th in the league.   (171)

 

Now lets analyze the Detroit Redwings team.

After a tough start Detroit bounced back with a 6-2-2 at their last  10 games. The return of  Pavel Datsyuk may be one good reason for that.

Chris Osgood should be in the net Saturday with a save % of  .902 but coming back from a few days off cause he had the flu shouldn’t  be on top of his game.

One thing Montreal will have to avoid is penaltys and stick ti discipline!

Detroit got th 7th best power play in the league with a % of 23.5

 

Now lets look at some  key numbers:

Goalies:

 

MONTREAL
Carey Price

6-8-0 - 2.92 GAA - .909% - 0 SO


 DETROIT
Chris Osgood

6-3-3 - 2.70 GAA - .902% - 1 SO

 

SPECIAL TEAMS

MONTREAL:
PP: 16.9% (24th)
PK: 81.0% (15th)
Shorthanded Goal(s): 1


DETROIT
PP: 23.5% (7th)
PK: 76.3% (26th)
Shorthanded Goal(s): 1

 

RANKINGS
Canadiens: 4th in NE Division - 12th in Conference (22pts - 11-11-0)
Red Wings: 3rd in Central Division - 8th in Conference (24pts - 10-6-4)

*Detroit are 3-9 in their last 12 road games.

*Montreal  are 1-7 in their last 8 vs. Western Conference

 

 

Injury list:

MONTREAL
Andrei Markov Ankle - Out until at least early February
Matt D'Agostini Concussion - IR
Hal Gill Foot - Out for 2/3 weeks
Brian Gionta Broken foot - Out indefinitely
Scott Gomez Probable


DETROIT
Jason Williams Leg - IR
Valtteri Filppula Wrist - IR
Johan Franzen Knee - IR
Andreas Lilja Concussion - Day to day

 

 

After all this analyze I found that under would be a very good play pinny offers the under 5.5 at -107 witch I think it’s a very good value considering all that ive mentioned before like Montreal Defensive play and the hot streak of carey Price.

Also the following trends tells me under should be good.

Under is 18-7-1 in Detroit  last 26 vs. Northeast.

Under is 11-5 in Montreal  last 16 home games.

I wouldn’t bet on either team I really prefer the total on this game.

 

 

 

 

Tennis Betting: Three tournaments, two Frenchmen to keep an eye on

November 10, 2009 by DoctorX79

Vienna, Lyon and St Petersburg all host tournaments this week and Sean Calvert expects Gael Monfils to go close in Vienna. But which French outsider in Lyon and Serbian in St Petersburg does he also fancy to make us money?

"Monfils, who currently lies in 13th in the rankings will have noted that countryman Gilles Simon was 16th in the rankings last October, but ended up rising to ninth, which was good enough to make the Tour finals in 2008, so Monfils should in theory be all over this event."


It was a profitable event in Moscow last week overall, with Marat Safin obligingly despatching Nikolay Davydenko in the first round at a handy 3.25 ; the big Russian was actually available at 7.0 after the first set.

There are three tournaments this week in which to invest your Safin winnings and of the three, I like the chances of a couple of Frenchmen in Vienna and Lyon and perhaps a Serbian in St Petersburg.

The Austrian capital's tennis tournament is played on one of the slowest indoor hard courts on the ATP Tour and despite the efforts of the organisers to speed it up last year, it remained slow.

As the last few weeks have shown, we are in the most unpredictable part of the tennis season right now, with the likes of Marcos Baghdatis winning events and of course Philipp Petzschner is the defending champion in Vienna, so anything's possible in October.

We are looking for players who have reasons to win tournaments at this time of year and also for players with autumn form, which brings us to Gael Monfils.

Last year's Vienna runner-up is well-suited to these slow courts and due to the fact that he has only won one ATP 250 event this year, he has room for another such title in his rankings portfolio in the race to make the end of season shoot-out in London.

Monfils, who currently lies in 13th in the rankings will have noted that countryman Gilles Simon was 16th in the rankings last October, but ended up rising to ninth, which was good enough to make the Tour finals in 2008, so Monfils should in theory be all over this event.

He has been handed a good draw, with John Isner - who surely won't be suited to the conditions - as the other seed in his quarter, while Radek Stepanek and Jurgen Melzer shouldn't cause Monfils much in the way of lost sleep.

Melzer has never bettered the quarter finals here in nine attempts, while Monfils beat Stepanek in straight sets here last year and has never lost to the Czech on hard courts.

I expect Monfils to get to the final, where he should face Marin Cilic if the seedings go to plan.

Cilic is in good nick at the moment, but he's never won a title at this time of the year and is a little on the short side at almost half the price of Monfils.

The Croatian has some tricky opponents in his half of the draw, including the unpredictable trio of Philipp Kohlschreiber, Nicolas Almagro and Feliciano Lopez, plus a resurgent Jarkko Nieminen. Cilic isn't much value at 3.25 in my view given his own inconsistency.

Over in Lyon, the indoor hardcourt event is once again played on one of the faster surfaces on tour and the draw has thrown up what should be a last chance for a French veteran to have a final tilt at an ATP title.

Marc Gicquel reached the final here in 2006 and 2007 and took tournament favourite Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to three tough sets here last year.

The world number 63 pulled out of Moscow citing a sore throat last week, but I would suggest that Gicquel had Lyon in mind when arriving at that decision.

He loves playing on these quick indoor courts and Lyon is without doubt his favourite event of the ATP Tour.

The draw has seen Gicquel avoid Tsonga and instead pair him with Gilles Simon, who Gicquel has beaten three times from their four indoor hardcourt meetings.

At 32 years of age the indoor specialist will see this as a last chance to claim a tour level title and at odds of around 29.0, it's worth a small bet against the likes of Tsonga 2.25 and Simon 4.0, neither of whom have made the final in Lyon in two and three previous attempts respectively.

If you feel the need to have a bet in the week's other event in St. Petersburg - an event that usually throws up some very odd results indeed - then I would look at backing Viktor Troicki at around 10.0.

The Serbian rediscovered his touch on the Asian swing and his only losses since have been to Novak Djokovic and Gilles Simon, which would be expected.

He has the best of the draw - paired with Mikhail Youzhny - who will be tired after his Moscow exploits and in a very unpredictable tournament Troicki, who recently had plenty of time off with a foot injury, might prove a decent back-to-lay shot.

Recommendations:

Lyon: Back-to-lay Marc Gicquel at around 29.0
Vienna: Back Gael Monfils at around 6.5
St Petersburg: Back-to-lay Viktor Troicki at around [10] (small stakes)

 
 
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